Comparing New Zealand elections
Obviously the recent election in New Zealand was less than entirely positive from a social democratic perspective, but, it could certainly have been significantly worse. In any case, all elections in New Zealand are interesting and all are under-analysed. So I thought… why not do something utterly unproductive? Like comparing the single-member electorates (and just electorates before the introduction of the current system) to have elected Labour members in big National victories.
Which is an excellent excuse for a map.
Logically speaking, the first election to compare this one with would be the last one (2008), also a National victory. Only four seats changed hands for certain: Wigram (south east Christchurch; previously held by ex-Labour left-winger Jim Anderton, and now reclaimed by Labour), Waimakariri (northern Christchurch suburbs; National gain from Labour), West Coast-Tasman (massive division on the west coast of South Island; Labour gain from from National) and Te Tai Tonga (the Wellington/South Island Māori division). Christchurch Central (a Labour seat going into the election) is currently tied and will be settled when postal votes are counted. So, basically, only South Island seats changed hands this election.
The last big National victory before 2008 was in 1990, when the Fourth Labour Government (best known for introducing unpopular free market reforms; later intensified by the new National government) was heavily defeated. Radical boundary changes brought on by the introduction of MMP make direct comparison difficult, but it’s fun to try anyway.
Only a couple of seats were won by Labour on the general ballot in 1990 and by National in 2011; they were Auckland Central, Napier (which was then confined to just the city itself; it expanded massively to its rural hinterland in subsequent boundary changes), Nelson (which was also expanded, but not to the same degree) and West Auckland (which is a little more complicated; most of the former constituency seems to be in Waitakere – narrowly held by the Nationals – but part is clear in New Lynn, a Labour seat in 2011. So this may be an inaccurate inclusion). Further borderline cases exit because of radical boundary changes; a significant part of the then-Labour seat of Panmure now has National representation, but the electorate’s core is in a very safe Labour seat, the eastern Christchurch seat of Yaldurst is now (I think) mostly split between Wigram and rock-solid National Ilam, while large parts of Christchurch North were drawn into the previously mentioned Waimakariri division. Obviously if Christchurch Central goes National when the postal votes are counted, then this section will need an update.
There is then the strange case of Peter Dunne (the former Labour MP who founded the centrist United Future party in 1994) who then, as now, represented Ōhariu in Wellington, but then for Labour. Boundary changes complicate matters there as well, but not a great deal. Then there’s the ever bizarre business of the Epsom division in Auckland, now held by the extremist free-marketeer ACT party, but then all covered (perhaps obviously) by National seats. 1990 was also the last election before Winston Peters happened, meaning that Labour won all the Māori seats (there were only four back then).
The list of seats held by Labour in 2011 and not in 1990 is much larger. In Auckland, Te Atatū was National then and Labour now, and the same can be said for most (I’d need a more detailed map to be entirely sure) of the old Titirangi division, while appears to be mostly in the current New Lynn seat. Mount Roskill was easily held by Labour in 2011 (and by the Labour leader Phil Goff no less), but was then called Roskill and was a loss to the Nationals (with Goff the defeated Labour candidate). In Wellington, the division of Miramir was National in 1990 but is now part of the safe Labour seat of Rongotai, while three other divisions in northern suburbs of the city were National then and do not have National MPs now. In Christchurch, large parts of the division of Lyttelton (National then) are now in Port Hills (Labour now), while all of the seat represented by Jim Anderton* is now in Labour electorates. And finally, both West Coast and Tasman were National gains in 1990, and (as noted already) West Coast-Tasman is a Labour seat now.
This will do for now, I think.
*For the ‘New Labour Party’. A left-wing break-away from Labour. Hilarious in hindsight, or what?
